Political and demographic tides

The September issue of The Atlantic contains an article about political futures in the U.S. in which the author cites the increase incidence of divorce and fractured nuclear families as presaging greater political appetite for interventionist policies. The idea is that without as many close family members to provide non-market insurance, people might increasingly look to the state to provide insurance against economic and other vicissitudes.

This viewpoint is certainly not without historic parallel, even if it is a stretch to assume outright that children of divorcees are destined to be Democrats. As Gary Becker and other have described, the evolution of the family during the last several centuries went hand-in-hand with the rise of market-based substitutes for traditional family roles. One could also see the rise of the modern welfare state as an endogenous response to the declining role of the extended family.

Women's work in Japan

Today's New York Times features an article on female labor force participation in Japan that discusses some of the challenges facing Japanese society. Aging in Japan is further along than elsewhere in the industrialized world, so in one sense their experiences offer a preview of what may await the rest of us.

Japan's labor force is already shrinking in absolute size, and it will continue to shrink as a result of smaller birth cohorts --- due to lower fertility --- replacing the aged.

As the Times article points out, you would think this kind of problem might facilitate greater female labor force participation. The nation needs more workers; where else will it get them? But unfortunately, the economic forces for change seem to be at least somewhat restrained by social pressures against change. It sounds like it is extremely difficult to be a female employee in Japan because of glass ceilings and issues with childbearing and maternity leave.

An inversion of the gender gap in wages

Queens College's Andy Beveridge is quoted in the Times as revealing evidence that in 2005, the median annual wage for young full-time female workers in several big cities was perhaps $5,000 more than males in the same category.

The article cited a lawyer who speculated the reason might be that females are more driven to begin their careers earlier in life, in order to be well established before engaging in childbearing. It would be interesting to see whether this kind of life-cycle compression really could be seen in data.

Saving us from ourselves

This week's New Yorker features two articles right next to one another that are subtly linked. Atul Gawande writes about health insurance, Michael Moore's Sicko, and the impediments in our own minds to reforming our system. And James Surowiecki writes about fuel economy standards and game theory.

Surowiecki's point is that people who drive gas-guzzling Suburbans and Hummers can still rationally vote for higher fuel economy standards. What is rational for themselves as individuals --- buying huge trucks --- they can recognize as not collectively optimal.

Gawande has been writing about Americans' reluctance to recognize this kind of problem in the U.S. market for health insurance. It may be individually rational, if heartless, for each of us to turn our backs on the chronically ill, allowing insurance companies to boot them out of coverage or charge them higher premia. Because after all, we're not sick. Not yet, anyway. But it is collectively optimal for everyone to have health insurance, period. Unfortunately it's not clear that Surowiecki's Suburban drivers recognize this yet.

Another interesting parallel is that Suburban drivers think they'll be safer in accidents. But the average American seems not to think he or she will ever get sick enough to run into problems with coverage, or at least is not willing to pay to insure everyone against that risk. Maybe the latter misperception (is it?) can be helped with films like Sicko, although pundits have claimed the film shows nothing new.

Trends in inequality

This weekend the New York Times reported on the ultra-rich, philanthropy, and tax rates and brought to mind the debate over trends in U.S. income inequality. Are we in another Gilded Age of hyper-rich robber barons?

What I've not seen is a broader treatment of trends in inequality in well-being, one that includes the dimensions of health and life span. Since income and health tend to be correlated, I think such a project would be revealing if difficult.

Public health and politics

A parade of surgeons general testified in Congress today about political interference with scientific views concerning public health. It may not come as much of a surprise, given the Bush Administration's track record with scientific accuracy. During the run-up to the Medicare expansion in 2003, CMS Actuary Richard Foster had said he felt threatened by political appointees and was kept from revealing the true cost of the new prescription drug benefit.

It is certainly less surprising now, to the extent that the Administration's reputation has sunk so low that political hacks are some of the few folks who want to work in it.

To be sure, the executive branch has never been a place for free-flowing ideas, and it probably shouldn't be. But it is distressing to see scientific views so restrained.

Happiness and marriage

The New York Times reported on research by Kelly Musick and Larry Bumpass regarding marriage and happiness. Maybe not surprising to anyone who's been married, they found a "honeymoon" of maybe 3 years followed by a downward dip in cross sectional data.

What is interesting is that over time, couples who stay together may get better at moderating each others' emotions. Robert Levenson at UC Berkeley pursues research in this area. Key issues are who displays these kinds of balancing characteristics and why.