Today's Times has an article about some early uneasiness among Republicans about Democratic intentions regarding the 2010 U.S. Census. At issue in 2000 and today is exactly what methods other than mailed paper forms, visits, phone calls, etc. to employ. Specifically, there is a spectrum of opinion about whether to use statistical methods to alter the final count based on priors about undercounting some subpopulations. Another issue is how to count individuals living abroad, like Mormon missionaries.
A big part of the problem is that to my knowledge, nobody has studied how to use statistical tools to adjust Census counts, and in so doing, figured out how to do it right.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Welfare for investment bankers
Exactly why laid-off investment bankers need a city-funded retraining program to weather the financial crisis is a little beyond me.
It should come as no surprise that New York City would be interested in retaining, not to mention expanding, its base of high-income, high-tax workers. But it is far from clear what kind of training would result in a laid-off investment banker's taking a high-paying job in the city when he or she otherwise would not. These workers are likely to be relatively young and certainly college educated. College and the experience in investment banking are probably general enough training for any extant jobs. In any event, unemployment insurance provides a safety net for all workers, high and low education alike.
As the article hints toward the end, energies directed toward stimulating entrepreneurial activity clearly ought to be more productive.
It should come as no surprise that New York City would be interested in retaining, not to mention expanding, its base of high-income, high-tax workers. But it is far from clear what kind of training would result in a laid-off investment banker's taking a high-paying job in the city when he or she otherwise would not. These workers are likely to be relatively young and certainly college educated. College and the experience in investment banking are probably general enough training for any extant jobs. In any event, unemployment insurance provides a safety net for all workers, high and low education alike.
As the article hints toward the end, energies directed toward stimulating entrepreneurial activity clearly ought to be more productive.
Monday, February 16, 2009
Stimulus bill details
The Times posted a nice overview of the stimulus plan's components, with details on a component funding comparisons of medical outcomes and how Arlen Specter got a $10 billion increase for NIH.
I love the parenthetical in the last one about martinis (and cancer).
I love the parenthetical in the last one about martinis (and cancer).
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Friday, February 6, 2009
Recession axing more men than women
The Times reports that the recession is narrowing the employment gap between men and women by resulting in more layoffs for men.
Still, BLS data (the Current Population Survey) indicate that employed men currently outnumber employed women by 7-8 million. Shares in employment have certainly narrowed over time, however, leading to a current split of about 53-47 in favor of men.
Probably more interesting are the remarks in the article about the likely strains on the household during the downturn given that unemployed men do not typically report performing household chores. Another facet of all this is the different nature of jobs held by men and women --- jobs may differ in terms of quality (wages, benefits, part-time vs. full-time), in terms of flexibility, and also in terms of stability. Is this pattern indicative of the higher tolerance for risk typically found among men?
Still, BLS data (the Current Population Survey) indicate that employed men currently outnumber employed women by 7-8 million. Shares in employment have certainly narrowed over time, however, leading to a current split of about 53-47 in favor of men.
Probably more interesting are the remarks in the article about the likely strains on the household during the downturn given that unemployed men do not typically report performing household chores. Another facet of all this is the different nature of jobs held by men and women --- jobs may differ in terms of quality (wages, benefits, part-time vs. full-time), in terms of flexibility, and also in terms of stability. Is this pattern indicative of the higher tolerance for risk typically found among men?
Sunday, February 1, 2009
Social consequences of recession
Tyler Cowen writes about the social impacts of the current recession in the Times. He paints a nice overview. I think it is absolutely right to keep an open mind about how this recession might differ markedly from previous downturns. Cowen writes about how "in cultural influence, it may well be the rich who lose the most in the current crisis."
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Character of the 2009 tax cuts
It's hard to piece together exactly what the stimulus bill recently passed by the House stipulates in terms of tax cuts. But as the Wall Street Journal reports, it appears that the centerpiece is a temporary tax cut of $500 for working individuals ($1,000 for families) that phases out with income above $75,000 per worker. The tax cut won't be sent out in a lump-sum like the 2008 rebate; rather, federal withholdings from paychecks will fall, increasing periodic take-home pay by a smaller amount.
There are many other facets of the stimulus bill as well, as reported here and elsewhere.
Martin Feldstein has weighed in against the bill's current form given its high price tag, and among other things he cites the apparently dubious track record of temporary tax cuts toward spurring spending. I've seen all kinds of estimates of the spending-per-rebate-dollar associated with the 2008 cut, and Feldstein cites 15%.
The authors of the bill seem to be banking on the premise that a smaller but more sustained increase in income, however temporary, will result in more spending. This is clearly the behavioral economics perspective that has appeared in the New Yorker, which I wrote about recently.
There are many other facets of the stimulus bill as well, as reported here and elsewhere.
Martin Feldstein has weighed in against the bill's current form given its high price tag, and among other things he cites the apparently dubious track record of temporary tax cuts toward spurring spending. I've seen all kinds of estimates of the spending-per-rebate-dollar associated with the 2008 cut, and Feldstein cites 15%.
The authors of the bill seem to be banking on the premise that a smaller but more sustained increase in income, however temporary, will result in more spending. This is clearly the behavioral economics perspective that has appeared in the New Yorker, which I wrote about recently.
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