Events have moved quickly over the past two weeks, and chances of a fiscal stimulus package passing Congress and getting signed by the President look surprisingly good.
Policymakers and their advisors are struggling to settle on the optimal design of the package, and as reported by the NY Times, it's because we don't know exactly what happened in July and August of 2001 when the tax rebate checks were sent out. The events of 9/11 produced basically a coincident shock, and it is tough to disentangle the responses.
