(noun) Causes and consequences of population characteristics, in blog form
Friday, January 2, 2009
Forecasting and business cycles
An article today in the Times discussed private sector economists' forecasts for 2009, many of which are at least pink-colored if not relatively rosy. But I don't think there are many economists alive today who are legitimately proficient at forecasting business cycles. So much of common forecasting techniques involve extrapolating reversions to trend.